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Hedge Connection is pleased to introduce another DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING provided by McAlinden Research Partners. A unique briefing is presented early each week as a way to quickly glean important current trends in the global news flow and economic data. This extremely comprehensive report provides a way to identify actionable investment themes early. A snapshot of this report is available to the public on The Edge and full reports can be accessed through Hedge Connection.

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Daily Intelligence Briefing for July 7th

A Barnburner for US Payrolls while the Fed Fiddles

Today’s Issue Cluster: US Labor 

  • Payrolls can have a “breakout year” … no fiscal cliffs in sight
  • Government jobs are headed up for the first annual gain since the recession
  • The Fed’s dashboard is still mixed: employment is at pre-recession levels but the participation rate is still trending down
  • If job growth keeps its current pace, the unemployment rate will be 5.7% even without an improvement in the participation rate
  • Wage pressures remain low in the US as well as other developed economies … so far
  • Strong job growth puts low odds on another recession even with the weak 1Q GDP

 

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-DM765_jobslu_G_20140701145821.jpg *

 

Best of the Rest
Ukraine - Despite the sanctions, US exports to Russia are at an all-time high
Power - The US power grid is opening up to smartphone monitoring by consumers and also to hackers
Metals - A third of China’s short-term funding inflows since 2010 are tied to commodity-based (over)collateralization

 

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McAlinden Research Partners, a division of Catalpa Capital Advisors, provides daily, weekly, and other periodic reports that identify actionable investment themes early. As students of change, we specialize in the identification of critical inflection points for asset classes, industry groups, and other clusters of securities. MRP reports complement the individual investment styles of clients by guiding them to where they can find investment opportunities. MRP clients include pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, private banks, asset managers and wealth advisors from around the world.

Disclaimer:

The information provided in this presentation (the “Report”) is not to be reproduced or distributed to any other persons. This Report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy/sell/endorse or a solicitation of an offer to buy/sell/endorse Interests or any other security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the sequence, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information in this Report. Unless otherwise noted, sources for public data include Bloomberg, Trading Economics, and FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data).

McAlinden Research publishes daily, weekly, and other periodic reports on the economy and the markets. Catalpa Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA) is a Registered Investment Advisor which manages client accounts. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets discussed herein by McAlinden Research are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Securities discussed in the Report may or may not be held in accounts managed by CCA and/or its associated persons, and changes in those accounts may be made at any time without notice to its subscribers. Neither McAlinden Research nor CCA is under an obligation to inform research recipients if any accounts managed by CCA subsequently purchase or sell securities discussed by McAlinden Research and they do not anticipate providing such information.

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