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Daily Intelligence Briefing for July 21st

 

Today’s Issue Cluster: Latin America 

  • Argentina could use a “collective action clause” to force holdout bondholders into a settlement … capitulation could trigger clauses allowing redress for everyone else
  • Puerto Rico’s bonds are perking up, the hotel sector is booming, but the economy is still faltering
  • Mexico’s reforms have yet to translate into stronger growth … the central bank is getting ready to downgrade its outlook again
  • Chile’s new president has spending plans that are expanding faster than the economy
  • Colombia is still booming, led by construction
  • Honduras has the world’s highest murder rate … Nicaragua has the lowest murder rate in Latin America

Best of the Rest

China -China’s government lifts the 6-year ban on selling mortgage-backed securities to support housing
Milk – Goldman predicts 5 years of global milk overproduction
US – The White House concludes that most of the drop in the labor participation rate is secular … base case is for further declines as boomers retire

Markets

Bonds – EM debt issuance hits record high

Emerging and frontier market countries have borrowed a record amount of money in capital markets in the first half of this year…. International sovereign bond sales by emerging markets reached $69.47bn in the first six months of the year, a jump of 54 per cent on the same period in 2013…. The figures do not include Chinese government debt, which is not issued in international markets….

In mid-June, Kenya set a record for the largest sovereign bond debut by an African country with a $2bn issue that was four times oversubscribed, while Ecuador – frozen out of international capital markets since defaulting on its debt in 2008 – successfully sold $2bn of new debt. FT

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Bonds – Junk debt appetite wanes

investors have pulled $2.7bn from high-yield bond funds, the largest weekly outflow for the sector since August 2013, based on data from EPFR Global. This contrasts with 30 straight weeks of inflows to investment grade bond funds. …   BOFA said its index of investor confidence suggested there was still more greed than fear in financial markets, though the amount of bullishness was close to the level that could trigger a contrarian “sell” signal. FT

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McAlinden Research Partners, a division of Catalpa Capital Advisors, provides daily, weekly, and other periodic reports that identify actionable investment themes early. As students of change, we specialize in the identification of critical inflection points for asset classes, industry groups, and other clusters of securities. MRP reports complement the individual investment styles of clients by guiding them to where they can find investment opportunities. MRP clients include pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, private banks, asset managers and wealth advisors from around the world. Disclaimer: The information provided in this presentation (the “Report”) is not to be reproduced or distributed to any other persons. This Report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy/sell/endorse or a solicitation of an offer to buy/sell/endorse Interests or any other security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the sequence, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information in this Report. Unless otherwise noted, sources for public data include Bloomberg, Trading Economics, and FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data). McAlinden Research publishes daily, weekly, and other periodic reports on the economy and the markets. Catalpa Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA) is a Registered Investment Advisor which manages client accounts. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets discussed herein by McAlinden Research are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Securities discussed in the Report may or may not be held in accounts managed by CCA and/or its associated persons, and changes in those accounts may be made at any time without notice to its subscribers. Neither McAlinden Research nor CCA is under an obligation to inform research recipients if any accounts managed by CCA subsequently purchase or sell securities discussed by McAlinden Research and they do not anticipate providing such information.

 

 

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