The Daily Shot 9/9/16: Global Macro Currents Sep9

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Greetings, 1. We begin with the Eurozone where, as many economists had expected, the ECB did not change its policy. The central bank downplayed the impact of Brexit, which is projected to hit Germany the most. Draghi suggested that the EMU governments should step up efforts to boost growth, in effect acknowledging that the ECB has done

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The Daily Shot 8/19/16: Global Macro Currents Aug19

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Greetings,  1. We begin with emerging markets where foreign funds continue the chase for yield. Here is Taiwan’s 10yr government bond (63bp). Dollar-denominated emerging markets bonds are outperforming US HY bonds and the S&P 500 year-to-date as EM debt ETFs’ shares outstanding continue to climb. Source: Ycharts.com 2. Mainland China and Hong Kong property price divergence

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The Daily Shot 7/15/16: Global Macro Currents Jul15

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Greetings,1. We begin with China where the latest economic figures are for the most part stronger than forecast. The GDP, industrial production, the money supply growth and credit expansion all came in above expectations. Source: Investing.com US futures jumped on the data release from China. The charts below show year-over-year growth in retail sales and

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The Daily Shot 7/8/16: Global Macro Currents Jul8

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Greetings, We begin with several updates on the United States. 1. The ADP private payrolls report beat consensus, suggesting that the 175k nonfarm payrolls number expected on Friday is realistic. However, June ADP report also showed the first decline in private construction jobs since 2010. Moreover, the “goods-producing” sector payrolls have declined sharply. Related to the chart

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The Daily Shot 7/1/16: Global Macro Currents Jul1

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Greetings,  We begin with Thursday’s central bank activity globally.1. Mark Carney’s speech hinted at near-term easing by the BoE. Source: WSJ The British pound sold off sharply in response to Carney’s remarks … Source: @barchart​ … while the FTSE 100 hit a 10-month high. 2. It seems that the ECB may be considering revising the

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