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Daily Intelligence Briefing

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Identifying Change-Driven Investment Themes

The Daily Intelligence Briefing is published by McAlinden Research Partners. The report is provided to Hedge Connection blog readers once per week for free. Below is just one of the five sections that delivers Change-Driven Investment Themes everyday.

I. Today’s Thematic Investment Idea

A deep dive into a market driver with alpha generating potential.

America’s EV Charging Network Expands Reach and Capabilities, Boosting Earnings for Manufacturers

Summary: One of the major barriers to electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the US is “range anxiety”, resulting from a perceived lack of charging stations and potential wait times to recharge batteries. Those concerns are not unfounded, but they are being addressed much more efficiently today than ever before. In fact, the ratio of charging stations and voltage of each port per registered EV is nearly equivalent to the optimal balance outlined by the US Department of Energy.

Charging stations are now being deployed across 50 mile intervals of US national highways as part of the US’s recently-passed infrastructure deal. Billions of dollars will be directly addressing the unequal distribution of EV charger deployment, funding new charging ports in rural and disadvantaged communities across the nation. Further, major restaurant chains like Starbucks continue to expand testing and deployment of their own EV charging infrastructure, in partnership with publicly traded manufacturers. 

Related Stocks: ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT), Blink Charging Co. (BLNK),

EVgo, Inc. (EVGO)

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According to an estimate by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world will need to install 40 million charging points by the end of this decade to match electric vehicle (EV) demand, up from just 1.3 million public chargers around the globe today. If global net-zero goals are to be met by 2050, the cumulative investment into the EV charging industry would have to reach $1.6 trillion, per The Economist.

As MRP has noted previously, the Biden Administration took a large step towards building out the public charging network, as well as public confidence in US charging infrastructure, by allocating $7.5 billion for EV charging as a part of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package passed in November.

Of that sum, $5.5 billion is now being allocated to state and local governments with the directive to place EV charging stations roughly every 50 miles along designated stretches of national highways. Per WIRED Magazine, the remaining $2.5 billion will be used to distribute through grants for putting chargers in disadvantaged and rural communities.

While this investment is only a drop in the bucket when compared to the grand scheme of funds needed to have a real EV-intensive economy, using the infrastructure bill’s allocation to install 500,000 new charging stations across the country – one of the Biden administration’s stated goals – would cover 57% of the charging that US vehicles will need by 2030, sparking the sale of some 25 million electric cars and trucks, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

So-called “range anxiety” is a very real barrier to adoption of EVs. People want assurance that they will not end up stranded without a charge and addressing those concerns make it much more likely EVs will be sold as a result.

Charging Stations Growing, Rural Networks Become More Popular


As of last September, Reuters reports there were 43,000 operational public EV charging stations, according to US Department of Energy data. With funding now rolling out the expand the US’s charging network by the hundreds of thousands, it will only be a few short years before charging stations outnumber 136,400 US gas stations.

However, surpassing the number of stations is only half the battle as available ports at each stop and the speed at which they can charge a vehicle are equally pressing concerns. With 120,000 charging ports available across the US’s EV charging network, that means only two or three vehicles (120,000/43,000 = 2.8) can charge simultaneously at the average charging station.

Of available public ports, the vast majority are only Level 2 (or 240-volt) chargers. Depending on a vehicle’s battery and additional specs, a 240-V source will deliver between 12 – 30 mph of driving time per hour of charge. Therefore, according to MotorBiscuit, an empty battery will take 6-12 hours to fully recharge. That kind of power level is ok for those who want to charge overnight at home but will not enthuse those who have reservations about the public EV charging network. Level 3 power sources, commonly known as DC fast charging, are becoming more common. Using 480V, most vehicles can charge up to 80% within only 30 minutes.

Some will claim that weighing the number of gas stations against charging stations is an unfair comparison since the number of vehicles gas stations serve versus the number of vehicles charging ports serve is extremely lopsided. By mid-2021, only 2 million EVs were on the road in the US, compared to more than 280 million registered vehicles overall.

Per the US Department of Energy, the ideal ratio of EVs to charging stations is 40 Level 2 charging ports and 3.4 DC fast chargers per 1,000 EVs (A DC fast charger usually has three ports). The US’s current ratio of chargers to EVs is actually doing pretty well by that measure, as electek notes there are 41 Level 2 charging ports and 5.7 DC fast charging ports per 1,000 EVs, respectively, or about 21 EVs for every charging port.

However, US public charging stations can be heavily concentrated in some areas, creating an uneven distribution throughout the country. Typically, rural and underserved communities are most left out of the equation.

In more rural areas, EV upstart Rivian has long been planning to kick start rural charging networks. As part of its approach to “adventure vehicles”, the company sees it as necessary to invest in charging stations throughout remote areas of the US. Currently, TechCrunch reports Rivian is working on installing its so-called “waypoint” chargers at all of Tennessee’s 56 state parks, just four months after announcing a similar agreement with the state of Colorado.

At least 84 free electric vehicle charging stations are set to be installed throughout state parks in Colorado as well, according to a press release from Environment Colorado. Unofficial Networks reports Rivian will install two chargers at each state park and provide funding for 25 years of maintenance.

Earnings and Partnerships on the Rise


Just last week, Blink Charging reported strong earnings, noting “record fourth quarter and full year revenue, driven by strong product sales and service revenue”, in the company’s news release. For Q4, the company reported a loss of -$0.45 per share from $7.9 million in sales, falling short of expectations for a -$0.39 loss but far surpassing projected sales of $6.2 million. Per Barron’s, Wall Street sees $31 million in full year 2022 sales, up about 50% compared with 2021.

TechCrunch reports Blink has around 30,000 EV chargers set up across 13 countries and inked a deal in January to supply its new IQ 200 Level 2 chargers to GM and deploy them at dealerships across the US and Canada. By mid-January, Blink had received “nearly 1,000 orders from GM dealers totaling 1,505 EV chargers,” according to a spokesperson for the company.

One of the larger companies in the space, ChargePoint Holdings also recently reported earnings. ChargePoint faced a -$0.17 per share fourth quarter loss, slightly larger than an expected -$0.16 loss.  Much like Bink, ChargePoint’s Q4 sales surpassed estimates at $80.7 million for the quarter versus expectations of $75.9 million. It was also better than the $78 million upper end of management’s guidance. As Barron’s notes, the $475 midpoint of ChargePoint’s fiscal year 2023 guidance implies 96% growth from the $242.3 million in sales recorded for fiscal year 2022.

ChargePoint made headlines this week, partnering with Volvo and Starbucks to install EV chargers in the coffee chain’s parking lots along a 1,350-mile route from Denver to Seattle. Chargers will be available in intervals of about 100 miles each and the project will demand about 60 DC fast chargers manufactured by ChargePoint. FastCompany notes that Starbucks has a total of 15,000 US locations, meaning an expansion of this pilot program could have huge potential.

ChargePoint ascribes its rapid growth to a unique business model wherein the company doesn’t own the stations on its network. Instead, the ChargePoint says their stations are independently owned and operated by businesses (like Starbucks and other retailers) that want to attract and engage employees and customers who drive EVs. ChargePoint builds and supports the charging stations, and provides mobile apps, analytics and software that let owners easily manage.

That is slightly different than companies like Blink, who make money not only by selling stations to commercial and residential customers, but by owning some stations and signing contracts with property owners. The Wall Street Journal writes that Blink typically splits the revenue generated through the sale of electricity to drivers.

CHARTS

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