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Markets
U.S. Stocks: A Major Bear Market Warning Light is Flashing
Most of the indicators that the media is discussing at the moment have to do with a recession (e.g. an inverted yield curve). But today, there is an important one that speaks directly to a bear market—flows in pension funds, insurers, and sovereign wealth funds. There is a combination of factors happening which shows markets have reached the end of this cycle.
On the one hand, pension funds and insurers are pulling money out of public markets to chase private investments (e.g. real estate and infrastructure). But at the same time, the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds are now pulling out of private market investments because there is too much money chasing too few deals. In other words, valuations have gotten too high everywhere and some of the world’s biggest investors are moving into cash.
When the world’s biggest investors are getting out of both public and private markets, it seems to indicate that the end of the market cycle is near. That said, this bull market has revived itself many times. Finsum
China Stocks: China Hedge Fund Doubles Down as Market Selloff Deepens Losses
The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped as much as 12% since the end of May, as the trade spat with the U.S. escalated and China’s crackdown on shadow banking led to record defaults and higher borrowing costs. Chinese stock indexes are among the worst-performing major global gauges tracked by Bloomberg this year.
Many investors have been retreating. Morgan Stanley’s Asia hedge fund clients cut their net leverage by about 25 percentage points from multiyear highs in January to 45 percent. Other managers are choosing to shun stocks in the world’s second-largest economy.
Still, some investors are spotting opportunities. One China hedge fund, Springs Capital, is adding Chinese stocks even as a rout deepened losses in its portfolio. The Springs fund has shifted from large industry leaders to small- and medium-sized growth stocks that are part of the ChiNext and CSI 1000 indexes, believing big health care and consumer companies have become “extremely crowded” trades over the past two years. By contrast, ChiNext and CSI 1000 indexes are valued at multiyear lows.
Meanwhile, China’s sovereign wealth fund is seeking permission to invest in domestic stocks for the first time, people familiar with the matter said. China equity funds attracted fresh money for the week ending July 4, the 15th consecutive week of net deposits. B
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Economics & Trade
Trade War: Beijing downplays Made in China policy
China is softening its rhetoric on an industrial policy that set it on collision course with the US and Europe, in a bid for foreign investment to keep its economy on track. The shift on the Made in China 2025 policy comes as Beijing seeks to improve ties with European companies that have complained about forced technology transfer and subsidies for national champions. As China tries to build a common front with Europe against tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, state media are no longer giving the same prominence to the policy.
Chinese leaders are also seeking to reassure foreign governments and companies that the programme is more benign than has been portrayed. China has also recently eased market access for foreign pharmaceutical companies, in addition to plans to reduce or eliminate ownership limits in the financial services and motor sectors in 2021-2022.
Countering foreign claims of forced technology transfer, the Ministry of Commerce has noted that China last year paid almost $30bn in intellectual property royalties to US companies. On Monday, EU leaders will meet Mr Xi and Mr Li in Beijing, where they hope to make progress on an investment agreement. Last week, China secured $20bn in contracts with German firms.
Nevertheless, the drive to promote Chinese innovation remains a national imperative. On Friday, Mr Xi told the top government committee overseeing the economy that developing technologies was vital not only for economic development but for national security. FT
Trade War: Japan, EU Sign Trade Deal to Eliminate Nearly All Tariffs
The European Union and Japan signed a landmark deal on Tuesday that will eliminate nearly all tariffs on products they trade. The ambitious pact covers a third of the global economy and markets of more than 600 million people. European Council President Donald Tusk praised the deal as “the largest bilateral trade deal ever.” He said the partnership is being strengthened in various other areas, including defense, climate change and human exchange, and is “sending a clear message” against protectionism.
The measures won’t kick in right away and still require legislative approval. But they will bring Japanese consumers lower prices for European wines, pork, handbags and pharmaceuticals. Japanese machinery parts, tea and fish will become cheaper in Europe. The deal eliminates about 99 percent of the tariffs on Japanese goods sold to the EU. About 94 percent of the tariffs on European exports to Japan will be lifted, rising to 99 percent in the future. The difference reflects exceptions on such products as rice, which enjoys strong political protection from imports in Japan.
Apart from its deal with the EU, Japan is working on other trade agreements, including a far-reaching trans-Pacific deal. The partnership includes Australia, Mexico, Vietnam and other nations, although the U.S. has withdrawn. B
Trade War: IMF: The US trade war could cost the global economy $430 billion
The global economy could lose $430 billion — or 0.5% of GDP — by 2020 if the current Sino-US trade war escalates and President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats are carried out, the International Monetary Fund has warned. The Washington-based IMF said on Monday that the US could be the “focus of global retaliation” to Trump’s trade war and said the country is “especially vulnerable” to repercussions from an increase in tariffs.
Despite its trade war warning, the IMF said in Monday’s report that global growth remains strong. But the IMF said larger risks have emerged that have “clouded” the outlook for the global economy. The IMF’s global growth forecast of 3.9% remained unchanged for this year and next. Beyond that, growth in the UK, Europe, and Japan is predicted to slow, while Asian and US growth is forecast to remain relatively strong. BI
Trade War: As Cost of Trade War Grows, Farmers Stick With Trump—for Now
President Trump’s trade policies already are changing the outlook for U.S. exports and farmer income, mostly because China, Mexico and Canada accounted for 43% of American farm exports last year.
Soybean growers alone expected to lose at least $3.2 billion during the next crop season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday predicted domestic soybean stockpiles will be 51% larger than expected a month earlier and has cut its export forecast by 11% and reduced its price forecast by 75 cents a bushel.
For farmers, the timing is terrible. This year’s projected net income of $59.5 billion would be the lowest since 2006, and the average farm business will see a 7% drop in 2018 to $339,300, compared with $437,400 in 2013. By September or October, many will need to have unloaded inventories from last year to make room for this season’s harvest.
Still, many U.S. farmers — including some whose incomes are plunging as exports stall — are sticking by the man they helped vote into office. They’d just like him to win the trade war quickly, before the fall harvest starts compounding the problem in a couple of months — when congressional midterm elections also will be heating up.
That doesn’t mean Trump isn’t losing some votes. The president’s net approval rating in monthly surveys by polling company Morning Consult has fallen almost as much in deep-red, agriculture-heavy states such as Kentucky (down 21%), Montana (-21%) and Oklahoma (-25%), as it has in the bright blue coastal states of California (-15%) and Massachusetts (-22%). B
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Politics & Policy
Brexit: Why calls are growing for a second Brexit referendum
Justine Greening’s call for a second referendum on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU is an important new development in Brexit politics. Over the past two years, numerous figures in the political centre ground have demanded a second referendum. But Ms Greening, a former cabinet minister, is the most high profile Conservative to do so. And over the next few weeks, it would be no surprise if a few others backed her move.
The timing of her intervention is clever. It has becoming increasingly clear that Theresa May’s Chequers plan, a kind of middle Brexit that keeps the UK in the single market for goods but not for services, lacks majority support in the House of Commons. The Chequers prospectus is being lambasted by hard Brexiters such as David Davis and by pro-Europeans like Peter Mandelson. As a result, politicians are looking to see how events play out in the autumn if the Chequers prospectus enters a cul-de-sac and ends up being defeated. If Mrs May were to lose a vote on her plan, a second referendum could emerge as the only viable option.
Voters would be asked to choose from three options: Mrs May’s final deal, a no-deal Brexit or staying in the EU. This proposal is complicated and would not be an easy route for parliament to take however, and would trigger fury among Brexit voters who would rage that the democratic will expressed in the 2016 referendum was being subverted. FT
Caribbean: Cuba will recognize private property in its new constitution
Private property was banned after Fidel Castro and his Communist Party seized power in 1959, but sales have been permitted since 2011. The proposed new constitution would freely recognize all private property, as well as the free market, while maintaining a strong role for the government, state media say.
Theoretically, the change could mean that foreign investors and private companies would have more legal protection in the state, but it’s unclear that the state will actually do more than recognize individual ownership. For example, according to Reuters, the Cuban government issued a regulation saying it would include property seizure as a possible fine for those who are self-employed earlier this week.
Details of the constitution were not made widely available; The Communist Party would continue to rule, but the new constitution would limit the amount of time presidents could serve to two five-year terms. The new legislation would also add a prime minister, who would take on the role as the head of government. Articles in the new constitution would also ban any sort of workplace discrimination based on gender, disability, and ethnicity, according to the BBC. QZ
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Finance
Asset Management: Private equity falls out of favour with Sovereign wealth funds
Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are increasing their exposure to listed assets as private market deal activity slows, according to research from the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IFSWF).
A recent report on global SWFs by Sovereign Investment Lab at Bocconi University, found that sovereign wealth funds’ (SWFs) appetite for real estate and infrastructure deals slowed in 2017. The number of investments in unlisted assets completed in 2017 fell to 184, from 196 in 2016, while the number of listed investments rose to 119 in 2017, versus 94 in the previous year. While SWF investors are increasingly looking at co-investment strategies with other investors, including their peers and private equity (PE) firms on investments, the traditional PE way of limited partners (LPs) entrusting money with general partners (GPs) is on the wane. In consumer goods and services companies, SWFs are buying fewer listed stocks, choosing to invest at earlier stages alongside PE firms.
Data from Sovereign Investment Lab also shows in 2017, SWFs completed more direct equity investments than they did in 2016 (303 versus 290), but that the value of these has largely stayed flat: $52.6 billion (Dh193 billion), compared to 2016’s $51.4 billion. Increasingly, SWF’s investment strategies show their preference to listed equities. The study showed average allocation to listed equities have increased to 33 per cent this year from 29 per cent in 2017. Gulf News
Banks: Online Banks Lead the Way in High-Rate Savings Accounts
After years of record low interest rates, a deposit pricing war has finally started. Rates at digital banks are up more than 70 percent over the past year. Goldman Sachs (GS), famous for servicing the world’s biggest companies and wealthiest individuals, launched an online bank called Marcus that welcomes people with a minimum deposit of $1. Its savings account pays a generous 1.80 percent APY, up from 1.05 percent a year ago. Goldman is facing intense competition from a number of other big players with deep pockets.
Credit card issuers are increasingly using internet-only savings products to help fund their lending portfolios. American Express (AXP) pays 1.75 percent on its savings account. Synchrony (SYF) and Barclays (BCS) also have online savings accounts offering 1.75 percent. Also paying 1.75 percent is Ally Bank, which is trying to make branch banking obsolete.
It’s not a coincidence that the interest rates are so similar at the leading banks. Over the past year, one institution will typically lead with a rate increase, and then everyone else will quickly follow. Competition is driving up rates. But the competition isn’t limited to big players. A number of smaller regional banks have created internet-only brands to raise deposits outside of their service area. SalemFive Direct is offering an online savings account that pays a 2.05 percent APY. CBS
Insurers: UK car insurance prices drop 11% in a year
UK car insurance prices are falling at their fastest annual rate since 2014. According to Confused.com and Willis Towers Watson, the average car insurance premium fell 11 per cent in the 12 months to the end of June, to £752. The fall will come as a blow to motor insurers, whose share prices have come under pressure in recent months as fears have grown about the impact of falling prices on their profits.
Over the past three months, shares in Hastings have fallen almost 15 per cent, while Direct Line and Esure are both down by about 7 per cent according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Increasing competition for market share, combined with falling premiums, will begin to bite. These challenges come on top of the ongoing pressures on repair costs.
One of the reasons for the fall in prices is that insurers are already pricing in the benefits of government legislation designed to cut the cost of personal injury claims. Car insurance prices rose steadily between mid-2014 and mid-2017, but the proposed reforms to the way that large personal injury claims are calculated reversed that trend.
The tough conditions this year come after a strong 2017 for the industry. According to data from EY, it produced its best underwriting result since 1994 last year, due to rising prices in the first half of the year and uncertainty over the reforms to personal injury compensation. FT
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Labour, Education & Demographics
US Demographics: In about 20 years, half the population will live in eight states
In response to Post opinion writer Paul Waldman’s essay about the current power of the minority in American politics, the American Enterprise Institute’s Norman Ornstein offered a stunning bit of data on Twitter: “I want to repeat a statistic I use in every talk: by 2040 or so, 70 percent of Americans will live in 15 states. Meaning 30 percent will choose 70 senators. And the 30% will be older, whiter, more rural, more male than the 70 percent. Unsettling to say the least.” In broad strokes, Ornstein is correct.
Ornstein’s (and Waldman’s) point is clear: 30 percent of the population of the country will control 68 percent of the seats in the U.S. Senate. Or, more starkly, half the population of the country will control 84 percent of those seats. It’s self-evident that the 34 smaller states will be more rural than the 16 largest; a key part of the reason those states will be so much more populous is the centralization of Americans in cities. It’s true, too, that this movement to cities has reinforced partisan divisions in a process called the Big Sort.
In the current political context, older voters means more Republican voters. By 2040, though, those 65-year-olds will be Generation X, a generation that currently skews more Democratic than the two generations that preceded it. With an important exception, to Ornstein’s point: White male millennials are the only demographic group within that generational bracket to lean more heavily to the Republicans. So the partisan ramifications of the uneven distribution of the country’s population aren’t clear. But the possible anti-democratic effects of the lopsided Senate are. The House and the Senate will be weighted to two largely different Americas. WaPo
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Services
Media: Over 5 million U.S. consumers will cut the cord in 2018, survey says
Over 5 million U.S. consumers will cut the cord in 2018, a move that will cost the pay-TV industry billions in lost subscription revenue, according to a survey published Tuesday by New York consulting firm cg42. Cg42 estimates a total of 5.4 million U.S. consumers will cut the cord in 2018, resulting in a $5.5 billion loss in revenue. This compares to 4.8 million in 2017 and 3.8 million in 2016.
Cg42 asked cord-cutting respondents and respondents who had never used a subscription pay-TV service what streaming services they had used in the past three months. Of paid streaming services, Netflix came out on top, followed by Amazon Prime and Hulu Plus. Hulu is jointly owned by 21st Century Fox, Comcast and AT&T.
The survey’s publication came hours after Netflix announced it had missed subscriber expectations for the second quarter. The stock was down 13% Tuesday morning, but analysts stood by the company, saying the pullback was a buying opportunity. MW
Retail: Amazon unveils VR kiosks at Indian shopping malls to promote Prime Day
Amazon unveiled virtual reality (VR) kiosks in shopping malls in India to promote its Prime Day sale event that begins on July 16. Shoppers can walk through rooms, including kitchen and bath, fashion, Prime video and more, each with a theme and sense of physical space. The Oculus Touch controllers let viewers handle products in 3D from all angles and see product details in pop-up windows. For example, clothing can be placed on holographic people to examine fit, and users can look inside refrigerators and handle toys and other products.
Amazon is embracing several inventive out-of-home (OOH) marketing tactics to promote this year’s Prime Day shopping event and highlight its tech focus outside of the traditional e-commerce business. Research shows that VR leads to high emotional engagement with users. In addition to the VR experience, Amazon has been delivering giant, 25-foot “smile boxes” to cities worldwide, which will reveal pop-up events that showcase the company’s membership offerings. Pop-ups could include concerts, video gaming tournaments, fashion or literary events. Prime Day is expected to generate $3.4 billion globally, a 40% increase from last year’s sales estimate. MDive
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Technology
Smartphones: Use of mobile devices for news continues to grow, outpacing desktops and laptops
Roughly six-in-ten U.S. adults (58%) often get news on a mobile device, 19 percentage points higher than the 39% who often get news on a desktop or laptop computer. The share of Americans who often get news on a mobile device is nearly triple the 21% who did so in 2013. At the same time, the portion of Americans who often get news on a desktop has remained relatively stable, with 39% of adults often getting news on a desktop or laptop computer, up just 4 percentage points from 2013.
The growth in mobile news consumption has been driven by older adults and those with lower incomes, as previous analysis has shown. Young people, however, still outpace their elders. About seven-in-ten adults ages 18 to 29 (71%) often get news on a mobile device, compared with 37% of those ages 65 or older. Moreover, those 65 and older are still more likely to often get news on a desktop than on a mobile device (47% compared with 37%, respectively). Pew
 
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