Gold spiked to new all-time highs of US$2070 and Euro 1740 last week and is currently trading about US$1940 and Euro 1640 after a sharp correction in the past two days. That correction has modestly muted our more cautious view we had heading into this week. Forecasting gold is always dangerous because one can’t predict the future. We recall reading about a gold trader who lost his job after heavily shorting gold in December 1979 at around $500 after the price about doubled in the prior six months. Then the Soviets invaded Afghanistan and gold quickly went to over $800.

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In this white paper, we discuss major market cycles for bank stocks which have not traded as cheaply since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) that ended in July of 2009, due to their cyclical business models tied to ebbs and flows of the economy. We furthermore conclude, that after a sharp move down in reaction to the COVID‐19 pandemic, banks may have begun a large, multi‐year bull market move, particularly as peak loan losses(a buy signal) may have already taken place

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